Inefficiency in Survey Exchange Rates Forecasts

Specifying the Forecast Generating Process for Exchange Rate Survey Forecasts

This paper contributes to the literature on the modeling of survey forecasts using learning variables. We use individual industry data on yen-dollar exchange rate predictions at the two week, three month, and six month horizons supplied by the Japan Center for International Finance. Compared to earlier studies, our focus is not on testing a single type of learning model, whether univariate or m...

Nonlinearity In Exchange Rates and Forecasting

Combining conditional volatility forecasts using neural networks: an application to the EMS exchange rates

The present paper examines the out-of-sample forecasting performance of four conditional volatility models applied to the European Monetary System (EMS) exchange rates. In order to provide improved volatility forecasts, the four models’ forecasts are combined through simple averaging, an ordinary least squares model, and an artificial neural network. The results support the EGARCH specification...

Market Structure and Inefficiency in the Foreign Exchange Market

This paper investigates the intradaily operational efficiency of the U. S. foreign exchange market by conducting computer simulation experiments with market structure (the numbers of market—makers, brokers and customers). The results indicate significant operational inefficiencies which can be explained by temporary inventory imbalances inherent in a decentralized market. The results also sugge...

Exchange rates.

THE UNIVERSITY of Pennsylvania health system was in London recently, recruiting nurses. Its advertisement stated that its recruiters were experienced in hiring nurses from the UK, Ireland and the Philippines, and an 'on the spot job offer is a possibility'. This one advert neatly captures the dynamics of the new international nursing labour market. The advert was placed by an international recr...